Dan Gardner is the New York Times best-selling author of Risk, Future Babble, Superforecasting (co-authored with Philip E. Tetlock), and How Big Things Get Done (co-authored with Bent Flyvbjerg). His books have been published in 26 countries and 20 languages. Prior to becoming an author, Gardner was an award-winning investigative journalist. More >


That's a wrap on 2023

Dec 19, 2023

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In response to the discovery in Kamloops, and many of the understandably disconsolate and angry comments I've seen on Twitter, I wrote a thread about people and judgment. Here it is: ... More >
On Victoria Day, this is a little essay with some random thoughts about symbols, history, and where Canada is now. Have a look at this: ... More >
We all routinely make assumptions about what other people think based on limited evidence. I do. You do. Everyone does. It’s how humans roll. For an explanation of the psychology that explains why, look up “WYSIATI” in the index of Danie... More >
This note is a letter of confession. Followed by an observation about how hard it can be to really absorb a correction and change your thinking. The confession isn't terribly titillating, I'm afraid. I got something wrong. The som... More >


Apr 13, 2020

I'm at work on a new book, with a new co-author, and this is my appeal to the awesome power of the collective. I need your help. I don't want to unveil the book just yet but I can say it involves project planning and execut... More >

The Daily Show

May 20, 2019

As someone who watched the Daily Show for years, it was a thrill to be asked to be the straight man in a sketch about climate change. What does it take to be the straight man? First, I talked for a few minutes about the psychology of ris... More >

Why I Write

Apr 04, 2018

I don't normally share reader email but when I receive this sort of thing, well... As I told this person, for a writer, to be read is a success; to be read and provoke thought is a victory; to be read and provoke thought that improves someo... More >

I stand corrected

Mar 08, 2018

Presented complete and unedited for the historical record, a reader writes: "This is a load of bollocks! And I don't mean ordinary, common or garden bollocks, no, I mean "arty farty" bollocks: the sort of bollocks that gets right up the no... More >

Stranger Things

Nov 20, 2017

I'd prefer not to be old enough that my childhood is now a source of pop-culture nostalgia, but there are worse mirrors than Stranger Things. And a mirror it is. See the kid with the bowl-cut below? (Yes, he's holding bear cubs.... More >

Summer reading

Jun 15, 2017

I'm into the early phases of research for my next book, and that means heaps of reading. The books alone are, in a stack, precisely 14 inches taller than I am. So I asked on Twitter if anyone wanted to know what I'm reading. Some of you sa... More >

Trump and the military

Feb 01, 2017

It's often been noted, rightly, that Donald Trump's "America First" approach to foreign policy is a repudiation of the internationalist approach -- that it is in the United States' interest to construct and lead a cooperative international ... More >
After doing an interview with ING, I was asked after the election to comment on the widespread perception that forecasting had failed horribly, experts know nothing, etc. Following is an email I sent in response. A little addendum: How peo... More >

Why study history?

Nov 09, 2016

At 3 PM on the afternoon of Election Day, I interviewed Robert Zoellick, former president of the World Bank, Under Secretary of State and Deputy Chief of Staff in the Bush Sr. administration, and Deputy Secretary of State in the Bush Jr. ad... More >

George W. Nostradamus

Oct 13, 2016

I've been researching the use (and abuse) of history lately, and that brought me to "The Power of the Past," an excellent new collection of essays published by Brookings. One essay looks at the role historical awareness played in the admini... More >

Back to work

Sep 06, 2016

Thanks to the generosity of my boss (me) I had a reduced workload for the last couple of months. Naturally, I spent my time productively. Much wood was chopped, many fish were caught. (That's a lie. The fishing was as bad as the weather was... More >

Fan mail

Apr 28, 2016

From a hand-written letter sent to my UK publisher with a return address in one of Her Majesty's prisons: "I very much enjoyed your book Superforecasting and thought that you might like to know that it has bec... More >
How would you like to get a little smarter by listening to one of the funniest dick jokes ever told? I know. We all dream of such a thing. Or maybe that's only me. Either way, it sounds both glorious and implausible. But bear with me. Get t... More >

Home news

Feb 03, 2016

So I have some personal employment news to pass along. I would very much like to this keep short and sweet — it’s tedious when someone rattles on about his employment — but it’s complicated. Sorry. Bear with me. First, I am no longer edito... More >

My dad

Jan 07, 2016

Two years ago today a great man died. He was my father. That's Jim Gardner in the photo below. Don't be alarmed. That's not an ogre dragging hapless bears away for dinner. Dad was a biologist. Here, he is holding a pair of yearlin... More >


Jun 01, 2015

This is my shiny new website. Please have a look around. Like it? Got suggestions? Drop me an email at futurebabble@gmail.com... More >