The Real Lesson of 2012

Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. Liberals had good reason to be delighted with the presidential election of 2012. Not only did most polls accurately foresee a victory for Barack Obama, … Read more

The US is Not “A Country Divided”

While it’s far from clear who will win next week’s presidential election, four outcomes are within watermelon-seed-spitting distance from certain. One, the margin of victory will be slim. Two, the … Read more

A History Museum, Not a Hall of Fame

Reasonable people can debate what exactly history is, but some things are beyond dispute. Legends unsupported by rigorous examination of the available evidence are not history. Boy’s-own adventure stories and … Read more

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